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CHG - Forecasts
FORECASTS

The Climate Hazards Group develops forecasts in conjuction with the FEWS Network and affiliates around the world. These forecasts are made available for easy distrubtion among local decision makers to mitigate or prevent food insecurity in vulnerable and developing regions.

Skill with respect to CHIRPS.

Summary

Medium range precipitation forecasts are being provided through the CHG's Early Warning Explorer. The forecasts are based on NCEP's Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). The forecasts are available on EWX in terms of two products (i) GEFS-Predict and (ii) GEFS-CHIRPS-predict products. The GEFS-Predict contains the raw GEFS prediction at 1 degree resolution. The GEFS-CHIRPS-Predict product is the GEFS prediction bias-corrected to the CHIRPS resolution (0.05 degree). The bias-correction is currently being performed following the quantile-quantile approach which involves bias-correction based on matching of cumulative distribution ranking for both the CHIRPS and GEFS.